Where have all the flowers gone? A preliminary analysis of the decline in first year school enrolment in KwaZulu Natal and possible links to HIV/AIDS

Enrolment is the single most important statistic in education, given its impact on every other element of supply and demand. The purpose of the analysis is to explore possible reasons forthe decline in first year school enrolment in KwaZulu Natal and suggest that the impact of HIV/AIDS may be a significant factor. It will also argue that if indeed HIV/AIDS is partially or even largely responsible for the decline, it is first and foremost a management issue of the greatest importance, irrespective of the problem's source. In other words, that HIV/AIDS must be seen as a long-term, exacerbating factor in traditional education management issues, and not treated as an intrusive health issue of passing concern.