Estimating the impact of HIV and AIDS on the supply of basic education

Case Studies & Research
32 p.

The study described here explores, for three regions with generalized HIV and AIDS epidemics, the impact of the epidemic on teacher supply now and up to 2015, the target date for the achievement of education for all. The study uses the Ed-SIDA model to make projections of the impact on education supply for 53 countries in three areas hardest hit by the epidemic: sub-Saharan Africa, the Caribbean and the Greater Mekong sub-region of south-east Asia. The study estimates the incremental economic cost attributable to HIV, of providing sufficient teachers to achieve universal primary education by 2015, and projects the costs under two scenarios reflecting different levels of availability to teachers of care and support, including anti-retroviral therapy. The results suggest that, in sub-Saharan Africa, the 2006 costs to education are less than half those estimated in 2002, reflecting reductions in HIV prevalence and better understanding of HIV epidemiology. Never-the-less, the impact on teacher supply is estimated to be sufficient to derail efforts to achieve EFA in sub-Saharan Africa unless teachers have universal access to treatment, care and support. We compare regions and examine the impact on basic education of two treatment scenarios: status quo and provision of ART and VCT to all teachers requiring it between 2007-2015. The results suggest that universal access to testing and treatment is always beneficial to education supply. In sub-Saharan Africa, universal access is cost-effective on education returns alone. In the Caribbean, the benefits to education could pay for universal access to ART (but not VCT), and in South-East Asia, where the epidemic has a lower impact, the cost of testing and treatment is greater than the education costs saved.

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